Who's winning?
Talarico leads in every major public poll released in October, by 2 to 6 points. Most of those leads are inside the margin of error, so the race is close.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Talarico | Paxton | Talarico lead (0–8 pts) |
|---|
LV = likely voters. "Oct." means the source did not give exact field dates. Every row links to its source.
What the betting markets say
Both big prediction markets favor Talarico, at roughly 62–63%.
Polls don't vote. Voters vote.
A 62% price is not a result. Polls and prediction markets measure what people expect. Ballots are the only thing that decides this race, and early voting runs Oct. 19–30. Find out how to vote.
Why isn't there a debate?
Paxton hasn't agreed to one. Talarico has accepted at least four debate invitations since July. As of Oct. 14, Paxton had accepted none of five from TV networks, including Fox News. So Talarico went on CNN and Jubilee and debated 60 Texas voters instead, a third of them Republicans.
Paxton's campaign said in July it would debate, then stopped answering the stations offering to host. Paxton told Fox News on Oct. 11 that talks stall over Talarico's terms. CNN invited him to the Oct. 14 town hall; he did not respond. KPLC · Mediaite · Axios
Full timelineWill Ken Paxton debate James Talarico?Every invitation, every answer →
Who's paying for this race
Talarico has raised nearly four times what Paxton has. Paxton's air cover comes mostly from super PACs, led by $158 million from Elon Musk.
- $136.9M raised since the start of 2025
- $64M raised July–Sept., a third-quarter record among all Senate candidates
- About half from donors who gave under $200
- $17.6M cash on hand
- Target of nearly $150M in outside spending against him
- $35.6M raised since the start of 2025
- $18M raised in the last quarter
- More than 83% from larger donors
- $15.9M cash on hand
- Elon Musk gave $158M to Senate Leadership Fund, which moved it into Texas PAC to air pro-Paxton ads
Sources: Texas Tribune money tracker · Texas Tribune on Musk
Where they stand on the issues
Both candidates are running on affordability, and they agree on more than you'd expect about gas taxes and data centers. Pick an issue for the full side-by-side.
The record
Paxton has spent most of his time as attorney general under investigation. The people who worked closest to him are now endorsing his opponent.
Paxton
- 2015Charged with securities fraud over a data center startup, Servergy. Tribune
- 2020Top deputies, including David Maxwell, report him to the FBI over favors for donor Nate Paul. They are fired, sue under the Texas Whistleblower Act, and Paxton does not appeal the judgment. Texas Tribune via KWTX
- 2023Impeached by the Republican-led Texas House. Acquitted by the Texas Senate. KWTX
- 2024Securities fraud case dismissed after a deal to pay restitution and do community service. AP
- 2025Federal Justice Department drops its corruption probe. Angela Paxton files for divorce, citing "biblical grounds." AP
- 2026Maxwell endorses Talarico. So does a lawyer who defended Paxton for nearly a decade, including at his impeachment trial. AP
The full case file: whoiskenpaxtontx.com
Talarico
- Before officeTaught middle school in San Antonio. Training as a Presbyterian minister. Fox News
- 2021Wrote a bill to cut Texas greenhouse gas emissions 90% below 1990 levels by 2050. HB 2206
- 2023Voted with the House majority to impeach Paxton. The Hill
- March 2026Wins the Democratic primary with 52.4% of the vote. Wikipedia
- Fall 2026Accepts at least four debate invitations from CNN and local TV stations and challenges Paxton to a Fox News forum. As of Oct. 14, Paxton had accepted none of five TV network invitations. Texas Tribune · Axios · Timeline
Talarico or Paxton?
Guess who. Answers are sourced above.
What people ask
Can Talarico beat Paxton?
Yes. He leads every major October poll, and both prediction markets favor him. No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since 1988, and the leads are narrow, so turnout decides it. The Hill
Who is winning the Texas Senate race?
Talarico, narrowly. The RealClearPolitics average is 48.5% to 46.3%. RealClearPolling
What are the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
Kalshi: Talarico 62%, Paxton 38% (Oct. 19). Polymarket: Talarico 63%, Paxton 39% (Oct. 18).
Did Ken Paxton's lawyer endorse Talarico?
Yes. A lawyer who represented Paxton for nearly a decade, including in his impeachment trial, endorsed Talarico. AP
Will Ken Paxton debate James Talarico?
Not so far. Talarico has accepted at least four debate invitations. As of Oct. 14, Paxton had accepted none of five from TV networks, including Fox News. Talarico debated 60 Texas voters on CNN and Jubilee instead. Full timeline. Texas Tribune
Who is Ken Paxton?
Texas attorney general since 2015 and the Republican nominee. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and acquitted by the Senate. Full record.
Who is James Talarico?
A Democratic state representative from Austin, former San Antonio middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian. Fox News
When is the election?
Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Early voting runs Oct. 19–30. How to vote.
What Texans are saying
Conversations, explainers and first-hand takes from across the internet.
Make your pick count
Bring an approved photo ID. Find your polling place at VoteTexas.gov. Dates: county election office